In the last 24 hours it seems that she may have disagreed with Former Chancellor George Osborne economic plan of ‘balancing the books’ as she has exclaimed the UK need a fresh approach to economic management.
Calling to check exactly what fees could be incurred upon cancellation is advisable.
There is much more to come and of course the rate won’t just move downward in a straight line, the much better than expected economic data for the UK is welcomed although it is doing little to support sterling. What if we see some bad news on the economy? This month there are key releases on Unemployment and GDP which reflect the period following the vote and will be pored over by investors eager to find clues as to what shape and direction sterling will take next.
If you order currency for collection ahead of time, some firms provide you with a right to cancel.
The Construction PMI data appears to have triggered the bout of short-covering on the GBP exchange rate complex which we have already mentioned.
The Bank of England has already forecasted that the British economy will continue to expand at a steady rate for the next two years – at 2.8 per cent in 2015, and 2.6 per cent in 2016, according to the Inflation Report projections.
If you’re entirely confident that we will vote to stay in the EU and don’t want to miss out on any major rally in the pound, then you could wait until after the vote.
The gaps between 2-year OIS rates in the US and those elsewhere have increased across the board.
The recent strength in Sterling could therefore be fleeting as it is detached from fundamentals.
A potential trigger for such a move could be the FOMC meeting this Wednesdaywhich is likely to result in another delay on raising interest rates as recent US economic data has shown a slowdown in demand.
The pound has rallied strongly since last week in reaction to polls showing the Remain campaign is ahead as voting gets underway.
We don’t expect much excitement from this pair this week.
Korber argues that near-term, GBP/USD has not yet fully discounted the BoE easing (unlike interest rates), while the Brexit economic shock and worrying external balances should continue to weigh on GBP over the medium term.
For movement in the rate today, markets will keep an eye on UK Construction PMI data, Referendum headlines, and any wider implications from the day’s OPEC meetings for commodities. The pound could renew its losses against the kiwi if data disappoint or spark additional Brexit concerns, while decent data and commodity pressures could support the pound.
For thos watching the GBP into EUR exchange rate this equates of an extension higher to 1.1976.
Furthermore, "while investors now seem to be moving towards our view that the Fed will resume its tightening cycle this year, we still think they are underestimating the extent of rate hikes in 2017", says Alex Holmes at Capital Economics.
“GBP/USD is currently fluctuating in a 1.30-1.34 range, but we expect it will weaken further,” says Oliver Korber at Societe Generale.
Looks like on the daily we are in a down trend…still a few brexit worries?
If you’re in the process of buying a property in Europe over the next few weeks and are worried about what is happening to exchange rates then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.
Nevertheless, there remains an elevated risk of further losses from here.
The chance of a bounce in GBP, inspired by an underwhelming policy response, is playing a strong hand in the recent GBP strength we have witnessed.
thanks for all your other trade plans as well..good work
There were no major headlines to attribute the sudden lurch lower which has lead to one analyst pointing the finger at automated trading programmes.
Consumer website MoneySavingExpert has identified Sainsbury's, Travelex and Post Office Money to be the three companies that will allow you to cancel. This applies to collection only for the first two, and collection or delivery for the third.
This summer saw the Bank of England hand Britons holidaying in Europe a windfall as the prospects of higher interest rates sent the pound to a seven-and-a-half-year high against the euro.
Against the US Dollar we see more constrained trading ahead of the all-important US Employment Situation report due out at lunch-time.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK will be invoking Article50 in March 2017 which started the initial drop.
We also warned that it is important for those watching Sterling to stay calm and watch for a recovery into the close.
George Osborne’s approach was to make cuts to spending where he could and cut interest rates, which the PM has stated people with assets have got richer from where as people without have suffered. In my opinion this is a major change in sentiment which is a surprise. It feels like she completely disagreed with the Former PM and Chancellor however before she became PM she was happy to sit in the houses of parliament cheering on her former colleagues.
"But activity for the whole of Q3 may not be quite as weak as the July PMI suggests. Given that the survey was conducted fairly soon after the referendum (between 12th and 28th July) there is a possibility that this could reflect an initial shock factor," says Scott Bowman, UK Economist with Capital Economics.
Over in the States we have Non-Farm Payroll data which can impact all major currencies as it impacts global attitude to risk. The data measures the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment (due to the seasonal impact on agricultural employment) in America and predictions can be fairly wrong. Because the markets price in expectations in advance, when they are widely wrong the currency markets do start to correct themselves swiftly which can lead to sharp markets straight away.
All Content © Pound Sterling Live 2013-2016. The news and information contained on this site is by no means investment advice. We intend to merely bring together and collate the latest views and news pertaining to the currency markets - subsequent decision making is done so independently of this website. All quoted exchange rates are indicative. We cannot guarantee 100% accuracy owing to the highly volatile and liquid nature of this market.
The 52 week lows for Sterling exchange rates have deepened further during today’s trading session, and in the early hours of today’s trading session the marketplace was unsure as to exactly why.
However, we are told by others that the move higher in GBP is technical in nature and is without substance.
If you are looking to make a currency exchange either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly. I can help you both with achieving an extremely favorable rate of exchange when you do buy along with helping you time when you buy which can be even more important. Just over the course of this week buying €400,000 has fluctuated in cost by over £10,000!
There was some good news in the report which noted UK service providers expect business activity torise over the next 12 months.
As I stated in my previous article I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound continue to lose value and consequently sterling exchange rates will fall. If you are buying a foreign currency it may be worth buying sooner rather than later, however its certainly worth analysing both currencies as there may be spikes in the market you wish to take advantage of in the near future.
Attention today will be on the ECB, who are not expected to announce monetary policy changes but could still prompt volatility in markets during the subsequent press conference, and on US data this afternoon, particularly the ADP Non-Farm figure ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. The rate may remain around this level on euro strength ahead of the ECB meeting, while the dollar could receive support this afternoon if data are positive.
All eyes now turn to the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates and quantitative easing due on Thursday the 4th.
This is hardly reassuring comments from the Chancellor and arguably it could be said a weak Pound is helping the UK economy so I think we could be in for further falls for the Pound vs the Euro towards the end of the year.